Syria Erupts Again
The civil war in Syria, which had long seemed dormant, has suddenly and unexpectedly reignited. It is difficult to grasp the reasoning behind this resurgence: as is often the case in the Middle East, the conflicts are so numerous and diverse that it becomes challenging to discern the alliances and convergences, which often appear peculiar. A brief historical overview seems necessary.
The Assad family has dominated Syria since 1970. Originally representing the Baath Party (socialist), they gradually abandoned socialist ideals to establish a brutal dictatorship that physically eliminates any opposition. For instance, the 1982 crackdown against the Muslim Brotherhood in Hama was particularly brutal, resulting in perhaps 30,000 deaths. However, it must be acknowledged that the dictatorship maintained peace and stability.
The Assads belong to and are supported by the Alawites, a small Islamic sect constituting about 10% of the Syrian population. The Alawites have presented themselves as secular, opposing any discrimination against other Islamic and Christian religious sects, thus appearing as a guarantee for all.
In 2011, a wave of democratic uprisings swept through the Middle East, known in the West as the Arab Spring. While these uprisings led to hopes of democratization, they failed everywhere except Tunisia, which later returned to a quasi-dictatorship. In Syria, the protests weakened Assad’s grip on power. The Free Syrian Army, with a democratic orientation, emerged but was soon overshadowed by more militant and fanatical Sunni fundamentalist groups, such as the al-Nusra Front (the Front for Support), affiliated with al-Qaeda. This was later followed by the Islamic Caliphate, commonly known in the West as ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria), further complicating the situation and prompting interventions against it by the West and others.
The civil war dragged on for years, displacing about one-third of the population to neighboring countries (including around two million to Turkey) and devastating the entire country. The Assads were on the brink of collapse when Iranian and Russian support arrived. The Iranians, representing Shiite religious extremism, supported a sect that had little to do with Shiism due to its secularism. The Russians, continuing a Cold War-era policy, sought to secure Mediterranean bases and reassert influence in a Middle East increasingly abandoned by the West.
The Assads gradually regained control of almost all of Syria, except for pockets held by rebels, including Idlib near the Turkish border. The conflict was effectively declared over in 2018. However, following the events of October 7 last year, the tragic Gaza conflict erupted, involving Hezbollah (the “Party of God”), Shiites who supported the Assads on behalf of Iran.
Suddenly, from Idlib, the last stronghold of jihadist fighters, a well-organized and prepared attack emerged, capturing Aleppo in just a few days and nearing Homs, advancing menacingly towards Damascus despite Russian airstrikes. The attack was launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ("Organization for the Liberation of the Levant"), with non-Syrian militias trained by Turkey. Turkish President Erdogan fears the formation of a Kurdish state in Syria, which could catalyze Turkey's perpetual Kurdish rebellion. Thus, he seeks free rein in Syria to counter the Kurds.
The conflict is framed within the broader Sunni-Shiite struggle: the Shiites are represented by Iran, while the Sunnis are led primarily by Saudi Arabia. At this moment, the primary conflict involves Israel and Sunni Palestinians, who, ignored by Sunni states, have the support of Iranian Shiites and their proxies: Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Alawites (the latter not Shiite but politically assimilated by Iran).
In Syria, a conflict pits secular Alawites, regarded as Shiite, supported by Shiite fundamentalists, against Sunni fundamentalists backed by Turkey, heir to Atatürk’s secularism. Notably, Israeli interests align with those of Sunni extremists inspired by al-Qaeda, whose raison d'être is the relentless fight against the West and the destruction of Israel, viewed as a Western outpost.
Predicting the outcome of such a conflict is difficult, but it is easy to foresee that the entire region will remain mired in instability and perpetual conflict, as has been the case for far too long.