and the war continues....
We have been between two wars for quite some time now: nearly a year in the Middle East and almost two and a half years in Ukraine. Everyone is trying in every way to achieve peace, but both conflicts continue and intensify, and the end seems ever more distant. But although it is clear that they are becoming increasingly inconclusive, why do they still persist? Why does a peace, which seems to everyone the most desirable thing, not arrive? Why do the relentless massacres and destruction continue?
There are general reasons and other specific ones, different for the two conflicts, which are quite distinct: let's try to outline them briefly.
In general terms, we know how wars begin but not when and how they will end. Those who start them do so with the idea that they will be short and victorious (otherwise, they wouldn't begin them), but very often they become long, uncertain, bloody, and ruinous for both sides.
To give a few examples: World War I began with the enthusiasm of the people and armies, both sides convinced that by Christmas of that 1914, the armies would return victorious. The war, the "useless slaughter" as the Pope called it, instead lasted for four endless years, with millions of deaths. Without taking into account the tragic experience of the First, World War II broke out in the belief that modern means would make the conflict swift and relatively bloodless. In reality, at the beginning, it seemed to be just that: the Germans won in Poland in 17 days, occupied Norway in a few weeks, and defeated France in just 40 days. Then the war dragged on for another long four years and became a carnage and destruction never before seen in history.
However, these wars ended in a few years because the forces involved were engaged in total and open combat. Other conflicts, however, dragged on for decades: think of Vietnam, which was at war from 1942 to 1972, almost 30 years uninterrupted, because neither side could truly destroy the other, and both were massively supported from the outside.
The greatest obstacle to achieving peace is the hatred that increases with the number of victims. Neither side wants to lose, each claiming that not winning means that its many dead would have died in vain. Everything spirals into a difficult-to-break cycle.
Ukraine
The conflict has rather distant origins, dating back to the 19th century, with the rise of nationalism and Ukraine’s rediscovery of its own national identity. More recently, with the dissolution of the USSR, the myth—historically unfounded but still alive—of Russian domination over Ukraine arose. More significantly, however, the strong Ukrainian emigration to the West revealed the prosperity of the West, which Ukraine desires to emulate. In 2004, we saw the Orange Revolution and, more importantly, the events of Maidan in 2014, which on one hand pushed Ukraine towards the West, but on the other created a rift with a not-insignificant part of the Russian-speaking population.
The Donbass revolt, fomented and supported by Russia, erupted, and Russia annexed Crimea, which historically had never really been part of Ukraine. The Donbass conflict dragged on for a long time in a low-intensity war. In 2019, Zelensky, an actor and not a career politician, was elected, and Putin thought that a short and relatively bloodless "special operation" could restore the pro-Russian faction in Ukraine. The operation, however, spectacularly—and, we can say, to the general surprise—failed miserably. The Ukrainians resisted, and arms from the West arrived. The war should have ended then, but Putin and the Russians, having failed in their initial plan, did not want to appear defeated and so invaded the peripheral regions inhabited by Russian speakers already in revolt, annexing them.
The war could have ended there, as losing rebellious provinces wouldn’t have been such a great loss for Ukraine itself. But by then, the Ukrainians, feeling victorious, believed that their many fallen soldiers would have died in vain, and so they launched an offensive that was supposed to break through Russian lines, defeat them decisively, and even reconquer Crimea. The offensive failed, and the situation became increasingly bogged down. Ukraine has suffered perhaps 500,000 dead and wounded, its territory devastated, its infrastructure—especially energy—ruined, and perhaps ten million (an enormous number) of its inhabitants are refugees abroad, likely never to return.
Ukraine is exhausted. However, Zelensky recently presented a peace plan that consists of defeating Russia—in other words, the continuation of the war. Could he ever admit that everything that has happened over the last two years was in vain? Putin, similarly, cannot emerge defeated and humiliated.
The war continues...
The only ones who could stop it are the Western powers, by denying Ukraine arms. But wouldn’t this mean renouncing the policy pursued so far?
The Gaza War
The central issue in the conflict is that the majority of Palestinians view the Jews as invaders, and more significantly, they believe it is both possible and even obligatory to destroy Israel with the help of God and liberate all of Palestine, from the Jordan River to the sea, as the saying goes. However, over time, Israel's position has only grown stronger, or at least more stable. In fact, in recent years, it has become clear that even Arab nations, following the example of Egypt 40 years ago, are realistically willing to recognize Israel.
Thus, on October 7, Hamas launched an unexpected and brutal action, killing 1,300 Israelis. The capture of 250 hostages aimed to trigger a crisis that would make the feared recognition of Israel impossible, thus preserving the dream of a free Palestine. While the attack achieved its immediate goal, the war did not threaten Israel's existence but instead led to an immense tragedy for the Palestinian people. Over 40,000 people have died in Gaza, the entire territory is devastated, and for the past year, all of its inhabitants have lived through a horrific nightmare.
Israel hopes to convince Palestinians that the attempt to destroy Israel only leads to major catastrophes for the Arabs, as has repeatedly occurred in the past and is happening again now. However, this message does not seem to be succeeding. There is no indication that Hamas is being repudiated by the people of Gaza. Halting the offensive would mean accepting that Hamas remains in control of Gaza, rendering all operations of the past year pointless. On the other hand, if Hamas were to withdraw from Gaza, the entire struggle waged by three generations would have been in vain.
A similar argument applies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Those who, for three generations, have declared that Israel will be destroyed cannot admit that this is impossible, and that these three generations have been mired in tragedy after tragedy in vain. Their only option is to continue fighting, with the hope that, if God wills, victory will come. Likewise, for the Israelis: as long as the Arabs do not accept Israel, they have no choice but to strike, strike, and strike harder.
In both cases, perhaps the solution lies in the hands of the West. Like Ukraine, Israel depends on Western arms supplies, which could be conditioned on ending the war or, more realistically, an armistice in the hope that more pragmatic Arab factions, advocating for a two-state solution rather than the liberation of all Palestine, emerge.
But even this seems difficult: how could the West not continue supplying Israel, which still faces the threat of destruction and another Shoah?
Thus, these two wars, like many others, are caught in a vicious cycle that is hard to break.