WHO WON IN GAZA
A fragile truce has been agreed upon in Gaza, though it remains
precarious due to differing interpretations by the two sides. On one hand, Hamas
views it as a prelude to ending hostilities, implicitly recognizing its role in
the fight against Israel (thus claiming victory). On the other hand, Israel—and
particularly its religious extremists—sees it as a temporary ceasefire to save
remaining hostages, after which hostilities will resume to destroy Hamas.
The fundamental question is: who has won in Gaza, Hamas or Israel?
Israel’s Perspective
Israel’s military objective has consistently been to annihilate Hamas, the perpetrator of the horrific events of October 7, thereby ensuring Israel’s security.
Some argue that the disproportionate number of casualties between Israelis and Palestinians demonstrates an imbalance. However, this comparison oversimplifies the situation. If Israel had responded to October 7 in kind, they would have randomly killed 1,200 Palestinians, decapitated children, and horrifically violated women before murdering them. Clearly, such a notion is absurd. Israel’s actions are not about revenge but deterrence: proving that any attempt to destroy Israel results in disaster for those who try, thereby seeking to eliminate Hamas as a threat.
However, this goal has not been fully achieved. While Hamas has been decimated and its leadership targeted, it retains significant support among the population despite the immense tragedy inflicted on Gaza. Responsibility for this tragedy must be assessed.
During World War II, when Allied forces leveled cities in Germany and Japan, blame was placed on the governments that initiated the conflict, not the Allies. Even when defeat was inevitable, those governments prolonged the war, causing most of the casualties. Similarly, Hamas could end the suffering by relinquishing control to the more moderate Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas. Yet Hamas persists in its resistance, with no significant internal opposition.
Critics often distinguish between Hamas militants and innocent Palestinians. Yet facts suggest otherwise. Gaza held elections only once, with Hamas securing a majority in its territory. Following their electoral victory, Hamas violently expelled Palestinian Authority representatives. Since then, Hamas has ruled Gaza unopposed, enjoying substantial popular support. In contrast, the Palestinian Authority is unpopular in the West Bank. Western nations officially recognize the Palestinian Authority and label Hamas a terrorist organization.
If Hamas are terrorists, akin to the Red Brigades, are only its members responsible for its actions? Comparing October 7 to the Red Brigades implies that bombing neighborhoods housing them would be unjustified because civilians were uninvolved. Yet Gaza’s war against Israel is led by Hamas’ uncontested government, similar to how Nazi Germany instigated World War II under Hitler. The Allies didn’t target Nazis selectively—they targeted Germany as a whole.
There has been no rebellion in Gaza against Hamas; on the contrary, they seem to maintain popular support even amid widespread destruction. Still, it’s possible that, over time, Gazans, confronted by the immense devastation, may abandon Hamas’ ideology and seek dialogue recognizing Israel. This would constitute a victory for Israel.
For now, Israel has not achieved its objective: Hamas still controls Gaza, Israel was compelled to negotiate with Hamas for the release of hostages, and it freed a significant number of prisoners in exchange. These outcomes have caused frustration among Israeli hardliners, some of whom have withdrawn from government coalitions, demanding that the ceasefire serve solely to liberate hostages before the war resumes with even greater intensity.
Hamas’ Perspective
If Israel has failed to destroy Hamas, the group claims victory for resisting the Israeli invasion for 500 days. Yet the price paid has been staggering: an estimated 60,000 deaths, widespread devastation, homelessness, hunger, thirst, and the constant terror of death from the skies.
What enables Hamas to endure such suffering?
It lies in their worldview. For Hamas and its followers, the conflict is not merely territorial but metaphysical—a holy war between believers and infidels, good and evil, destined to end in victory. Weapons matter less than Allah’s will, and martyrdom guarantees eternal paradise.
The unchallenged control of Hamas over Gaza likely isn’t enforced by brute force alone. Like other authoritarian regimes, propaganda shapes public opinion. As Goebbels once said, a lie repeated endlessly becomes truth—a belief even he succumbed to.
However, if Hamas aimed to provoke a broader Arab war against Israel, its strategy has failed spectacularly. Sunni Arab governments, perhaps motivated by the Abraham Accords and normalization with Israel, have done little to support Hamas. Only Iran and its proxies, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, have lent support, likely driven by their rivalry with Sunni states. The prospect of Israel’s destruction seems increasingly unrealistic.
From the Western Perspective
For Western observers, the question is less about Gaza’s battles and more about the long-term outlook for both sides.
Israel can endure, as the West cannot permit its destruction, which would constitute a second Holocaust. Yet at the same time, Western nations prevent Israel from achieving a decisive victory akin to the Allies’ triumph over Nazi Germany, which eradicated that ideology.
Ironically, Gaza survives on Western aid and is shielded from total collapse by Western moral sensibilities—yet its leaders and people view the West as an enemy.
The West’s main critique of Israel is the absence of a clear strategy. Offering Palestinians an alternative to Hamas—a two-state solution long advocated by the international community—is essential. Without it, Hamas remains entrenched in Gaza and will eventually launch new attacks. The cycle of violence will continue, with mounting casualties on both sides.
Hamas, meanwhile, has no realistic prospect of destroying Israel. The essential issue remains Arab recognition of Israel’s right to exist. Without this, conflicts will persist, and Palestinians, being the weaker side, will suffer catastrophe after catastrophe, as they have for 75 years.