The Trump Cyclone
A few days of Trump’s presidency have created turmoil—shock, one
might say—around the world, not only among America’s adversaries but also among
its traditional friends and allies.
Certainly, the character is unpleasant, crude, and lacks diplomacy, which is not
just deception and hypocrisy but also a way of relating to others without
creating resentment—resentment that then generates greater emotional
difficulties, hindering action itself.
The public humiliation of a head of state like Zelensky, never
seen before in history, has, for example, led to a consolidation of Ukrainian
public opinion, achieving the opposite of what Trump intended.
Trump throws out random numbers, completely unfounded, such as claiming that
Zelensky would have only 5% of the electoral support or that the U.S. has given
Ukraine a fictional $500 billion, creating embarrassment and discredit, as these
statements are easily disproved.
We also notice that these are fragmented, approximate, almost incoherent
statements—something vastly different from speeches, for instance, by Mattarella.
It would thus seem that Trump is entirely unfit for his role as head of state. However, one must also acknowledge that his actions, at least for now, do not seem devoid of immediate results—he is shaking the world. Only in the future, with hindsight, will we be able to judge whether these upheavals will have had a positive or negative effect on America itself and the rest of the world—posterity will deliver the final verdict.
Trump won the elections with a program that can be summed up in
two words: America First.
In reality, all his predecessors had promised the same thing, but in a much more
generic and vague way.
America has traditionally been isolationist: forced to intervene in World War I,
it later withdrew (even from the League of Nations, which it had helped
establish). Then, once again compelled to intervene in World War II, it spent 60
years countering communism and later Islamic radicalism, engaging in costly and
bloody conflicts across multiple local wars, from Korea to Iraq.
With these existential threats now gone, Americans no longer see a reason to be
involved in global affairs or, as the saying goes, to be the world’s policemen.
The essential point, in our view, is that Trump, despite everything, SAYS TRUE THINGS that diplomacy, political rhetoric, and political correctness have long hidden behind ambiguity.
Ukraine
The war in Ukraine could have ended within a few months. Once
Russia’s attempt to install a pro-Russian government failed—thanks to the heroic
Ukrainian resistance—Russia could have been allowed to keep some
Russian-speaking provinces, and hostilities could have ended.
Instead, Europeans and Americans solemnly promised Zelensky that they would
support him until Russia was defeated, which later turned out to be impossible.
The only possible solution now seems to be the one that was available in the
first months of the war. Talking about a "just peace" (assuming that justice is
an objective concept in war) means prolonging the conflict indefinitely.
The idea that Putin, after Ukraine, could threaten Europe and
that Ukrainians are fighting to defend the West is entirely unfounded: if Russia
has not even been able to subdue Ukraine, how could it think of attacking all of
Europe? And for what reason would it do so?
At most, Putin might aspire to reestablish a federation of independent states,
as was considered after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but there is no
reason why this should be seen as a threat to the West.
Nor can it be said that this is a war between democracy and
despotism—Putin has no interest in imposing undemocratic regimes on the West,
unlike the Soviet Union.
For three long years, certain narratives have been promoted that Trump is now
showing to be untrue and unrealistic.
Middle East
Trump continues to support Israel, as the U.S. has always done,
for reasons that are not always easy to explain.
Islamic radicalism, currently embodied by Hamas and supported only by Iran (but
not by other Arab states), holds the unrealistic dream of destroying Israel,
while Israel, for its part, seeks to destroy Hamas—without success.
The inevitable consequence is that Palestinians go from one catastrophe to
another, and Gaza is now in extreme ruin, yet it continues to identify with
Hamas. A situation with no way out.
The video portraying Gaza as a vacation destination is not only entirely unrealistic but also in poor taste, demonstrating a total lack of sensitivity to so much death and suffering. However, it is also true that the only solution for Gaza’s inhabitants would be to emigrate to other Arab countries and rebuild their lives—staying means only continuing to live in extreme ruin, as has been the case for three generations.
Tariffs
The issue is very complex. However, it is a fact that no state
can sustain a trade deficit indefinitely—sooner or later, the trade balance must
be restored.
A tariff policy, therefore, is inevitable. Of course, these are measures with
unpredictable consequences that can lead to severe economic disruptions for all
parties involved, such as increasing inflation in the United States itself.
However, it is also true that purchasing goods from foreign countries that offer
lower prices leads to so-called "industrial desertification," which, in the long
run, causes economic and social crises, as well as increasing income
polarization—a phenomenon evident throughout the West for at least 30 years.
Military Rearmament
Since the end of World War II, after Europe’s devastation, the
U.S. has taken on the role of guaranteeing the defense of the West, partly as a
counterbalance to communism.
Currently, however, it is unclear why Europeans should not also contribute to
their own defense. Hence, Trump’s demand that they invest in security instead of
leaving the entire burden to Americans.
Indeed, Europeans now seem willing to allocate substantial resources to
defense—figures as high as 800 billion euros are being discussed.